PRN Update – 1st December 2025 – Q1 PRNs 2026
Ash Clay, Procurement & Commercial Manager
Welcome to another PRN update, this time relating to 2026 and the first round of quarterly PRN invoicing. We recently updated members regarding end-of-year corrections and final 2025 pricing, which can be found HERE.
Thank you to everyone who joined our quarterly PRN Market Update webinar on 18th November. We covered the latest verified data, the current (and potential) market implications, and refreshed policy updates. You can access the recording and slides via the PRN Centre in the member login area, or directly (recording HERE and slides HERE). Please note that prices shared in the webinar were market estimates at the time and have since been revised in line with confirmed data and procurement costs.
UK Recycling Data and 2026 Impacts
As ever, the start of the new compliance year, and PRN market conditions and pricing, are largely determined by how successfully the previous compliance year ends. For 2025, this is a bit of a mixed bag across materials, meaning some are likely in for a smoother start than others.
Recycling targets set by Defra are also set to rise again, meaning that even if UK producers handled exactly the same amount of packaging in 2026 as they did in 2025, their PRN obligations would still be higher. This is effectively the lever government uses to drive year-on-year improvements in packaging recycling, and why these regulations are in force.
Paper & Fibre Composites
Recycling rates for Paper PRNs (which cover both paper and fibre PRN obligations) were very strong and sustained across 2025. The UK is currently looking likely to reach target, with carry-over available due to December’s volume being surplus to requirements.
This means the Paper PRN market is likely to start 2026 under relatively little pressure. However, there are potential issues ahead. The UK is still dependent on Export PRNs (particularly for paper) to meet recycling requirements, and in 2026, Defra is changing exporter requirements so that PRNs can only be claimed once waste packaging reaches its destination, not when it is initially shipped.
This creates delays to PRN availability, which could stretch to as much as 70 days depending on the export destination. By year end, it’s likely that some of these PRNs will be lost from the system altogether. This may affect supply dynamics and introduce perceived shortfalls, especially during periods of uncertain demand before data releases.
Glass
Glass is a material likely to require carry-in from 2024 in order to reach its 2025 target. As a result, it’s unlikely there will be a large pool available to bring into 2026. Contributing further is another year of poor performance by Glass Other, with shortfalls to target again needing to be made up through surplus recycling from Glass Remelt grades.
The weaker close to 2025, reduced carry-over, and increased recycling target for 2026 will mean more pressure on Glass PRNs in early 2026, and likely higher prices early in the year as well.
Aluminium
2025 sees Aluminium PRNs likely to hit target, potentially with carry-in available for 2026. While this is positive and suggests more stable market conditions in early 2026, we must continue monitoring Aluminium markets carefully.
The UK remains reliant on a relatively small number of domestic reprocessors, and history shows that periods of shutdown, maintenance, or improvement works can slow PRN supply. When this occurs, the UK typically relies more heavily on export, which may itself be impacted by the new delay rules described earlier.
Steel
As with Aluminium, Steel is another material with a strong performance and finish to 2025. This means it’s likely the UK will have a pool of carry-in available for 2026 to help boost early progress towards higher targets.
Plastic
The turbulent end to 2025 is now well-documented, and the situation has been worsened by closures of plastics reprocessors across Europe, with the UK being no exception.
The 2026 Plastic PRN market is set to begin under extreme pressure due to a combination of:
- little available carry-over,
- increased recycling targets driving higher overall demand,
- reliance on exports expected to be hit by delays and/or a loss of PRN volume
- potentially reduced supply from UK reprocessing capacity.
All of these factors are likely to combine to result in high PRN pricing in early 2026. However, if the PRN system can once again work as designed and drive improved recycling rates during periods of high pricing, the UK should still stand a chance of reaching target and overall compliance in 2026.
Wood
Despite a strong performance for most of 2025, Wood looks set to finish the year with particularly poor recycling volumes in the final quarter. This is likely due to accreditation suspensions/cancellations later in the year, as well as a low PRN value failing to incentivise continued improvements to recycling rates.
This means carry-in levels may be affected. While the overall task for 2026 should still be achievable, it does add a bit more pressure into the early-year market.
Q1 2026 PRN Rates
In setting the Q1 PRN rates for 2026, we have taken into account: current recycling performances as reviewed above, our 2026 purchase rates to date, available carry-in levels, current and forward market rates, seasonal trends, and the average annual rates required to achieve targets based on previous years.
This is considered alongside our wider industry knowledge around UK recycling capacity; plus, the relevant information we discuss regularly with all key suppliers.
Please see below our confirmed Optimum Variable Rates (OVRs) for Q1, along with an estimated annual average to support budgeting for the year ahead. When setting pricing and budgetary estimates throughout the year, we always aim to do so as accurately as possible, reflecting both verified market data and our ongoing procurement work to secure competitive rates.
Please use the scroll bar to view the entire table.
| Paper | Glass | Aluminium | Steel | Plastic | Wood | Fibre-Based Composite | |
| Q1 - Confirmed | £8.75 | £129.00 | £55.00 | £22.50 | £291.00 | £11.50 | £8.75 |
| Estimated Annual Average - Potential Low | £3.75 | £76.25 | £35.00 | £9.50 | £175.00 | £4.25 | £3.75 |
| Estimated Annual Average | £6.00 | £96.25 | £55.00 | £19.50 | £194.00 | £8.50 | £6.00 |
| Estimated Annual Average - Potential High | £14.50 | £135.00 | £129.00 | £55.00 | £305.00 | £25.00 | £14.50 |
Table 1 – Q1 2026 Beyondly PRN rates, with estimated annual averages